Pound Sterling rises on improved UK economic outlook, weaker US Dollar
- The Pound Sterling capitalizes on risk-on mood and rises to 1.2660.
- UK’s upbeat Manufacturing PMI data and increasing home prices suggest that the recession in the second half of 2023 was shallow.
- The US NFP data will guide the next move in the US Dollar.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) aims to extend its recovery above the one-week high of 1.2660 in Thursday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair exhibits strength as recent economic indicators in the United Kingdom have shown that the economy is on track to return to growth after falling into a technical recession in the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, a weaker US Dollar due to the poor United States Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI data for March also boosted the Cable.
The UK’s Manufacturing PMI surprisingly expanded in March after contracting for 20 straight months, driven by robust domestic demand. Strong UK factory data propelled business optimism to its highest level since April 2023, with 58% of manufacturers expecting their production level to increase over the coming 12 months. In addition, British house prices rose 1.6% in March, the highest pace since December 2022, suggesting that the real estate sector is holding up despite historically higher interest rates.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling extends winning spell for third trading session
- The Pound Sterling turns sideways after advancing to 1.2660 against the US Dollar. The asset is expected to extend the upside as market sentiment is bullish, and a weak United States ISM Services PMI has knocked down the US Dollar. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the Asian session.
- On Wednesday, the US Services PMI surprisingly fell to 51.4 in March from expectations of 52.7 and the former reading of 52.6. The Services PMI gauges business activity in the service sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy. Therefore, the impact of a poor Services PMI was significantly adverse for the US Dollar, dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) by more than 0.5% to 104.15. The ISM report also showed that new orders and prices paid subindexes fell significantly.
- This week, the major driver for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for March, which will be published on Friday. The economic data will significantly impact market expectations about whether the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates from the June meeting. The NFP report is expected to show that 200K workers were hired over the month, lower than February’s reading of 275K.
- On the UK front, the Pound Sterling will be guided by market expectations over Bank of England rate cuts and the S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI, which will be published at 08:30 GMT. Investors expect the BoE to kick-start the rate-cut cycle in June as the United Kingdom inflation is slowing consistently. For the whole year, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he sees two or three rate cut expectations as “reasonable.”
- The Services PMI is forecasted to have remained unchanged from its preliminary reading of 53.4. An upbeat PMI data would strengthen the UK economic outlook. This week, the final Manufacturing PMI reading for March, released on Tuesday, returned to growth after contracting for 20 straight months.
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rises to weekly high near 1.2660
The Pound Sterling rebounds to a one-week high near 1.2660 after discovering buying interest from a six-week low of 1.2540. The GBP/USD pair continues its winning spell for the third trading session on Thursday. Cable bulls respected the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2566. The 20-day EMA near 1.2660 could act as a strong barrier ahead.
On a broader time frame, the horizontal support from December 8 low at 1.2500 would provide further cushion to the Pound Sterling. Meanwhile, the upside is expected to remain limited near an eight-month high of around 1.2900.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 40.00 after slipping below it. The event should not be considered a “bullish reversal” until it decisively breaks above 60.00.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.